According to the latest rainfall data, India has received an average of only 92.2 mm of rainfall during June, significantly below the normal average of 157.7 mm for the month. Even if widespread rainfall occurs on the final day of June, Tuesday, the total monthly rainfall is expected to reach only around 100 mm, remaining well below the seasonal average.
Historical weather records show that June has been drier only twice during the past 100 years. The country recorded 87.5 mm of rainfall in June 2009 and 92.1 mm in June 2014. Both of those exceptionally dry years occurred within the past two decades, placing 2026 among the driest June months in modern weather history.
Despite the severe rainfall deficit, there are signs of improvement for the weeks ahead. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that the monsoon will strengthen across most parts of the country, including central India, from the first week of July. The forecast indicates widespread and significant rainfall, offering relief to regions that have experienced the largest monsoon shortfall so far.
Among all regions, central India has recorded the steepest rainfall deficit at 54% during June. Eastern and northeastern India have reported a rainfall deficiency of 41%, while northwestern India has recorded a deficit of 30%. Southern India has also remained below normal, with rainfall lower by 28%. The widespread deficiency across all four geographical regions suggests that the influence of El Niño on India's southwest monsoon is beginning to intensify.
According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, rising ocean temperatures across the Pacific have pushed El Niño close to moderate intensity. The agency has warned that the climate pattern is likely to strengthen further in the coming months, raising concerns over its continued impact on India's monsoon season.
The unusually dry June underscores the growing influence of global climate patterns on India's weather system. While the expected revival of the monsoon in July may provide much-needed relief, the rainfall deficit recorded during June has already placed 2026 among the most challenging monsoon starts witnessed in nearly a century.
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